Nigeria’s Protest and Russia’s Expansionism

By Muhammad Bello, fsi, fsdu.

On Saturday, as the #EndBadGovernance protest continued for the third day in parts of Nigeria, a group of the protesters were sighted in Kano waving Russia flag and calling for Putin’s intervention in the country.

This is not the first time that Russia featured in the affairs of the country. Back during the Civil War, the obvious role of the then USSR was that of a protagonist that sold arms to the federal government.

Before the #EndHunger protest started the DSS had disclosed that there was foreign influence behind what was going on and that what the protesters are trying to achieve is a regime change.

This is a new trend to watch out for and denotes that there are those promoting it with the aim of destabilizing Nigeria. This, according to experts, is worrisome for the country. It means that there is an extension of Russian influence in Nigeria now.

Going by what is currently going on in the Sahel, there is a lot of Russian influence in the area. They are already in Sudan, Mali, Niger and Bukina Faso. They are also in Central African Republic.So, its influence in Africa is expanding, making recent Kano showings unsurprising.

Back in 2019 the West had ranked, albeit lowly, Sub-Saharan Africa among Russia’s strategic priorities. However, despite the abysmal ranking and the position that its strategy was less comprehensive, the country’s incursion into the sub-continent is also described as “opportunistic moves that are unlikely to yield significant results.” This has come to pass with the emergence of the Wagner Group in Congo and regime changes in three countries: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. all of which pulled out of ECOWAS under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

An Eastern power, Russia, has been fingered in the coup d’etats in the West African countries mentioned above.

Currently, the sentiment of most African countries is anti-America. Those countries that have pulled out of ECOWAS are anti-France and they are looking for alternative security architecture, thus posing security threats to the sovereignty of Africa.

According to a foreign relations expert I spoke with the display of Russian flag in Kano may provide ‘credible leadership’ for the protest and an avenue for it to continue until regime change is effected as indicated by the DSS in its recent intelligence report. The expert expressed fear that the protest is yet to abate and subsequent ones would be spontaneous with the potential of escalating lethally.

In a swift reaction Russia denies its involvement in the trajectory of the protest. Yury Paramonov, Press Secretary of the Russian Embassy in Nigeria said, “The Russian Embassy in Nigeria does not have any information about any groups of protesters using the Russian flag or other state symbols of our country.

“Even if such incidents did occur, it would be the decision of individuals. We do not know why they might have used Russian flags.

“The Russian Federation is in no way involved in the current events in Nigeria. Moreover, Russia does not provide any material or financial support to the protesters,” Paramonov stressed.

Implications

The sight of protesters in Kano State, Nigeria, waving Russian flags and calling on President Vladimir Putin to intervene during the #EndBadGovernance protests have several implications, both domestically and internationally. Here are some potential interpretations and consequences:

Domestic Implications:

1. Disillusionment with Local Governance

   – The act signifies a deep sense of frustration and disillusionment with the Nigerian government. It suggests that the protesters feel their grievances are not being addressed by their own leaders and are looking externally for support.

2.Political Symbolism

   – Waving Russian flags could be a symbolic gesture to express a desire for strong leadership, as President Putin is often perceived as a decisive and authoritative figure. This might reflect a yearning for more robust governance in Nigeria.

3. Public Sentiment

   – The move could indicate a segment of the population that is open to foreign influence or intervention, which might be concerning for national sovereignty and unity.

International Implications:

1. Geopolitical Significance

   – This act could be interpreted as an invitation for Russia to increase its influence in Nigeria, a country that has traditionally been within the sphere of Western influence, particularly the United States and former colonial power, the United Kingdom.

2. Diplomatic Relations

   – Such actions could strain Nigeria’s relationships with Western countries, as it may be seen as a pivot towards Russia. This could have broader implications for international aid, trade, and diplomatic support.

3. Russian Response**:

   – If Russia were to respond positively to these calls, it could lead to increased geopolitical competition in the region. Russia might see this as an opportunity to expand its influence in Africa, similar to its involvement in other African countries.

Social and Cultural Implications:

1. Public Perception

   – The act could polarize public opinion within Nigeria. Some may view it as a legitimate cry for help, while others might see it as unpatriotic or misguided.

2. Media and Propaganda

   – The incident could be used by various media outlets and political entities to push different narratives, either to criticize the current Nigerian government or to highlight foreign interference.

Security Implications:

1. Internal Stability

   – Calls for foreign intervention can exacerbate internal tensions and potentially lead to increased instability. It might embolden other groups to seek external support, leading to a fragmented national discourse.

2. Government Response

   – The Nigerian government might respond with increased security measures or crackdowns on protests, potentially leading to further unrest and human rights concerns.

Conclusion:

The waving of Russian flags and calls for President Putin’s intervention during the #EndBadGovernance protests in Kano State reflect a complex mix of domestic dissatisfaction, political symbolism, and potential geopolitical shifts. It underscores the urgent need for the Nigerian government to address the underlying issues driving such protests and to engage in meaningful dialogue with its citizens to restore trust and stability.

Bello resides in Abuja.